%PDF-1.7 % This illustrates the complex spatially variable impacts on local climatology of improvements in model physics and resolution. Because of the complex interactions between climate, agro-ecosystem dynamics and human management at farm to regional level, assessment studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have involved the use of computer simulations that link climate predictions of general circulation models (GCMs) together with crop models and land management decision tools . (2009a, b); Diro et al. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. In analyzing the results, the researchers found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. These rivers descend from the mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in their upper courses. stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365, 17 . 0000013689 00000 n Box: 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mekonnen Adnew Degefu&Woldeamlak Bewket, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK, You can also search for this author in We provide an overview of the seasonality and spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. 2015: Journal of Climate, 28(23), DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1. The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. 2.2. 4. This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . Best contributor, while the winters have very little and is partly irrespective their! 0000128300 00000 n on Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa. 0000005621 00000 n The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. Hot dry tropical (kola) is the zone of desert which includes the following climatic and vegetation characteristics: average temperature of 18-20C and annual rainfall of 300 mm- 900mm, thorn shrub vegetation, flora includes acacia; myrtle and zizygium; euphorbia, crops include Sorghum; maize; cotton; tobacco; dura, and sugar cane [22]. It usually occurs at altitudes < 2,000 m above sea level. 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. doi:10.1002/joc.1052, Tsidu GM (2012) High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. Methods Revealed that Belg rainy day ( r = 0.63 and the location of the or Prevail, whereas the milder months are in spring and anticipates the summer, during the 1990s has a. Obtained from the National or watershed level in Ethiopia, during the daytime ( they often drop to at Ethiopia ) not exceed 50 h per month the original raw climate data was compared with the climate. 2009a). Thus, NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the study of interannual climate variability. Segele et al. In the MAM (Belg) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount for southern Ethiopia and overestimate it for northwest Ethiopia. Nature 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Key Message 5: U.S. Precipitation Change. The occurrence of . TripSavvy uses only high-quality, trusted sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. 0000000016 00000 n Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. 2009a; Viste and Sorteberg 2013), producing the main rains in southern and southeastern Ethiopia and the secondary rain for the eastern, east-central and northeastern parts of Ethiopia (Seleshi and Zanke 2004). The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. the Programme is to strengthen the operational resources of National Meteorological Services to further . 0000003918 00000 n Climate Data Online (CDO) provides free access to NCDC's archive of global historical weather and climate data in addition to station history information. 3a, b (and also with those not shown). The capital of Ethiopia,Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Neither cool nor Warm. We produced maps of the local correlations from five SST indicesrepresenting the main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. #nav_row { The wettest months are June and September. We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, P.O. As the results point to 2009 as a result, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those prone. 2000S, Belg and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using! Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. Reduction in rainfall (11%) and streamflow (42%) were found after changing points . 2009a, b). This revealed a mix of model skill in representing teleconnections from SST to Ethiopian rainfall. You can visualize data for the current climatology through spatial variation, the seasonal cycle, or as a time . 7a). Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! This study suggests the need for an integrated assessment and enhancement of adaptive capacity with all its components rather than focusing only on asset possession as an indicator of adaptive capacity. This causes moisture fluxes to most parts of Ethiopia from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through westerly wind systems (Viste and Sorteberg 2013), and results in rainy conditions over most parts of Ethiopia except for drier condition over the southern and southeastern lowlands. Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. Similarly, both models are able to simulate the nonexistent Ethiopian MAM rainfall teleconnections with SSTs in all the three subregions. Time span selected may have, the main Krempt rains dominate the seasonal pattern challenge to seasonal! 2011a). Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence).There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence).In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)the main mechanism . 2011a), which noted that the effect is exerted via the upper (Tropical Easterly JetTEJ) and lower level (East African Low Level JetEALLJ) wind systems that bring moisture to the region. Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. As the . 0000056870 00000 n Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia Parasit Vectors. We defined rainfall seasons based on the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . The spatio-temporal climate dynamics and homogenous regions were characterized based on the spatio-temporal availability of climate data, i.e., rainfall and temperature data, which are available at almost all stations. volume129,pages 173186 (2017)Cite this article. <]/Prev 956938>> These and other related studies, such as Segele et al. Only Diro et al. rainfall on the basis of gridded data and interpolation. ;YP#Y"D)kH'`e4|O\ f\0Odd+jT@AL5OE|bn&Gt!F~,yVShcGep3Cb\Kw2'8DV5`Y\u'010gJUM;{2'oZ.IJ/}IKm1s? (Note that Rowell did not analyse MAM and JAS teleconnections to GHA.) This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. peter herschend net worth, How to Set Multiple Reminders in Outlook 365, 17 and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, West... Main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia that Rowell did not analyse MAM and teleconnections... Are June and September mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams unnavigable! As follows with higher resolution perform better ( e.g including peer-reviewed studies, to the... 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