by Handedness, The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1124 2023 1B Rankings Preview #1, https://media.blubrry.com/rotographs/cdn-podcasts.fangraphs.com/RotoGraphs-Audio-01-09-2023.mp3, Justin Masons Baseball Chat January 9th, 2023. The Rays are another possible answer, though. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. Relative to the Yankees, the big losses for the Rays (Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier) and Jays (pretty much just Ross Stripling) are relatively mild. As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. That makes the Rangers an interesting case study in a team trying to buy its way out of its rebuilding phase before the top prospects are ready to contribute. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. Yesterday, we looked at the National League; today, we check out the Junior Circuit. 34 on our Top 100) and Mickey Moniak have played their way onto the Opening Day roster and should provide some youthful excitement for a team filled with veterans. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. I remain on the record that I think the Tigers are better than ZiPS thinks, and its nice to see that Detroit isnt going to play games with Spencer Torkelsons playing time. They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. Even if the Nationals struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, theyll at least be entertaining to watch. These are based upon the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which use a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer and our manually maintained playing time estimates. And that means its time for one last important sabermetric ritual: the final ZiPS projected standings that will surely come back and haunt me multiple times as the season progresses. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. You start with two easy Hall of Famers and then about 40 seconds later, youre reassembling the late-80s Braves. San Diego retained Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, and having a full season of Juan Soto and (hopefully) most of a year of Fernando Tatis Jr. is quite the boost. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. Thats not to say their offseason was a failure. With the Giants predicted for an 85-win season by both models, the four-win difference amounts to a massive playoff probability decrease. But when I look at the offense, theres just not that much to complain about. These projected standings do take the strength of schedule into consideration, which will be a bit more uniform now that the league has rebalanced the schedule. The haul of prospects theyre getting back in these trades should form the core of the next great As roster hopefully right around when a new stadium on the Oakland waterfront is opening up. Read the rest of this entry . Whether the anti-service time manipulation rules in the new CBA influenced many teams to carry their top prospects on their Opening Day rosters is up for debate. 25. Some may think. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. Read the rest of this entry . This is actually much less complex than it sounds. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. Not by much but their minimum payroll boost looks to be in the $15-25M. But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. The 2022-23 Premier League fixtures. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. New for this year, Ive opted to include defense as a component, though its weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Theyve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado just hasnt been good enough. by Retrosheet. They did bring back DeScalfani and Alex Wood and Logan Webb is a stud. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets' lineup from top-heavy to balanced. I imagine most fans would likely say the Rangers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien) or the Padres (Fernando Tatis Jr. and mostly Jake Cronenworth). Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. The talent was evident, but ownership was clearly reluctant to spend any additional money or prospect capital to supplement the core again. Here's how PECOTA sees the 2022 season: This is just the NL East of course, you can view the full projections here. Boston should have no problem scoring runs in 2022, but theres a lack of depth in the rotation one that got even thinner when Chris Sale fractured a rib this spring. . So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? They also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is already sneaky good. Even being average for 2 months wouldve kept us in it. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. And at that number Cleveland wont play. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). I love projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team stands after the off-season. These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. I talked quite a lot about Francos outlook when he he signed his big ol contract extension, so I wont rehash that here. : 0767266154 or via messenger Facebook page. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. Still, a bounce back from Nick Castellanos remains likely. They had a fantastic offseason, adding Kevin Gausman to replace reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray as well as adding to the back of their rotation with Yusei Kikuchi. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! My own expectation (Vazquez) would be $8-14M. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lpez, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as youll find in the majors, and Jess Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. Which is why they were trying to trade him up until the last minute. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. So we project probabilities, not certainties. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. So how does it work? The Phillies certainly need a starting pitcher, and ZiPS is less than enthralled with the situation at second base and definitely isnt on Team Brandon Marsh. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. This year? The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National Leagues 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miamis 2021 mark. The exercise continues this offseason. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. A community dedicated to discussing the San Diego Padres. Read the rest of this entry . Although he didnt pitch for Atlanta due to injury - and only spent six weeks in the organization - he was a key part of the Braves mid-2010s rebuild. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies problem. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. The Astros are still the favorite to win the AL West, but theyre also looking just a little more vulnerable than they have in the recent past. Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in a year where anything that could go wrong did. The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Whats more encouraging is the top prospects who are one year closer to making their major league debuts; Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll could both show up at some point during the season. Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, and Manaea were all traded away this spring, and Frankie Montas will likely be sent to the highest bidder during the season. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. Evan Longoria is 36, Brand Crawford is 35, and Brandon Belt is 33. Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022: And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds: Lets take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds. The goal of ZiPS is to be less mind-blowingly awful than any other way of predicting the future. On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. Probably the most surprising team in these standings is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a cornucopia of players that ZiPS just really likes (Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Ryne Nelson in particular). And thats where all these models are built. Bringing in Nelson Cruz to be a veteran mentor was a nice touch, and Stephen Strasburg could potentially return from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery mid-season. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, On paper, the White Sox are good enough to be in the second tier, but some spring injury issues have knocked them down a peg. One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; theyve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division. Below are the previous parts. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. They then run the simulation 20,000 times. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. In the National League West, ATC is more bearish on the Padres. They re-signed postseason hero Eddie Rosario and added Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to bolster an already deep bullpen. ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. They also traded for Matt Chapman, giving them a huge boost to their infield defense. Not when they need a 2B, at least one OF, maybe a C and P. Welcome back, baseball! Padres sneaking in as a WC team and reaching or possibly winning the WS would be an amazing 2022. 60% bachata, 20% kizomba, and 20% salsa. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. Next up: The start of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please. Yup! Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. Earlier this offseason, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2022 season. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. If you squint, you can sort of see how it could work out for them, but theyll likely come up short this season. This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division is getting a tougher schedule in 2023. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. With Spring Training right around the corner, this is the perfect time to look at FanGraphs' projections for the 2023 season, continuing my series and moving to DH. I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively. Just need to make it a full 6. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. If I were a Rockies fan, Id have voted to legalize psychedelic mushrooms, too. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. Help Support FanGraphs. I dont think they expected to be able to sign him to an extension. Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. Probably not. The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors I guess this explains why theyve spent no money this offseason. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Third base (or second) is a better long-term home for him than shortstop, so last years Willy Adames acquisition showed the correct instinct on Milwaukees part. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! Something went wrong. Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. The Mets appear certain to drop a lot of cash this winter, but again, they need to, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Brandon Nimmo, and, well, much of the bullpen all heading to the open market. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 9:47 AM ET, Park Factors Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. Well get the bad news out of the way first because, well, thats the order we do these blurbs in. They need two corner outfielders and a second baseman. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the leagues pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. Daimon Latino Nights is open every Wednesday from 8 PM to 2 AM. The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. That is the case here, as the MAE of 8.3 wins is above the ZiPS historical average of 7.5 (not including 2020). Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!! The Mets might have snuck into the bottom of the second tier if Jacob deGrom hadnt gotten hurt this spring, sidelining him for the first half of the season. Reservations are proceeded at phone no. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Its not just their new additions either. A full year of Byron Buxton would be a huge boost, and the Twins have got plenty of supplemental talent in the lineup in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel San. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. One risk facing the Royals is that Witt plays third base, with Nicky Lopez remaining the shortstop. This starts with bullishness on the Matts. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. Before we get to the 2023 ZiPS projections, theres still some unfinished work from 2022 to do. Martinez and Alex Verdugo. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. The exercise continues this offseason. The Angels have the benefit here of having most of the teams performance tied up in just a few players, with nobody crucial headed to free agency. The Royals and Tigers have a lot of fairly serious problems, so I doubt anyone is shocked to see them at the bottom here, though ZiPS does think KC can cobble together a halfway decent offense if they can resist doing the odd things they seemingly like to do (Ryan OHearn has the 38th-best projected WAR for a position player in their organization). Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. Lets look. Texas, on the other hand, had an incredibly productive offseason, but the fact remains that this was an awful team entering the winter. 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings NL Central. Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. Of note here is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time baked in than lower-percentile projections before this step. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Theyll get a full season of Wander Franco and just handed the keys to another one of their top prospects in Josh Lowe after trading Austin Meadows this week. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected point total, its probability of . Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. Lynn will be back soon enough, but his injury exposes how thin Chicagos rotation is, especially if another injury strikes. That doesnt mean we should bank on it; Oakland has lost a lot of people who are really good at playing baseball. We also get one of my favorite spring time treasures Projection systems releasing their standings and playoff predictions for the season. Quite a lot about Francos outlook when he he signed his big ol extension., 20 % kizomba, and Brandon Belt is 33 the projections for the most baseball... 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