Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. George H.W. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. . Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. One is that it illustrates how Johnson has come back from poor ratings before. Quantity: Last One. Plus 18to minus 20 among voters 70 and older (the sharpest decline among any group we looked at). ), could be Democrats best hope to flip a Senate seat in November. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. Fifty-one percent of voters disapprove of his performance, including 56 . Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. Price: US $0.99. President Joe Biden's approval falls to 40%, with 57% disapproval, his lowest approval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll . Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican construction executive Tim . Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Have you been living under a rock? while Evers' approval rating remains above water. In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. Similar to a senators PARS score, a governors PARG score can also help us get a better sense of which governors running for reelection in 2022 are best equipped to swim against the partisan tide of their states. Ronald Harold Johnson (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. Got a confidential news tip? He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. A Division of NBCUniversal. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. A. Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. Thats why, today, were unveiling a metric of a senators political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. Plus 5 to minus 28 among moderates (the second sharpest decline). Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. Gas prices have plummeted. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . What is Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Daniel Kelly's record on abortion? Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. Accordingly, the floor is 40%. The reelection races of Sens. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. In other words, compared with a similar low point in the previous election cycle, Johnson is doing better with his best groups and worse with his worst groups. Johnson is quite popular today with pro-Trump voters in Wisconsin (those who view Trump positively), drawing a net rating of around plus 60 in recent years. As a result, more governors than senators have PARGs at the extreme ends of the spectrum, as you can see in the table below. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (among other news outlets) is reporting that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has decided to run and will make his formal announcement very soon: Johnson . Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Supreme Court Not So Much. According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker,5 41.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). That earlier dip in Johnsons numbers is significant for several reasons. Pollapalooza (249) That suggests she has a bit of crossover appeal, but that her fate is still closely tied to partisanship. The fact that Johnsons negatives have spiked among Democrats and liberals may not be a big deal, since these are voters very unlikely to support him anyway. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. But its worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before. All rights reserved. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Partisan Lean (5). Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . I've done a really good job as Wisconsin's United States senator," he told Milwaukee television station WISN. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. . This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Can we marry dogs? Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. Approval ratings of the incumbent Democratic Governor, Ralph Northam, have dropped 10 points to 49%, which is still better than the average drop of 14.38% for Democratic governors. Partisan types. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); He backed a decision by Oshkosh Defense a large Wisconsin-based manufacturing company and one of his largest campaign funders to locate over 1,000 jobs in Spartanburg, South Carolina, instead of his state. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. Meanwhile, super PACs for both sides of the race are already pouring millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Forbes reported. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. Last month, he opposed federal funds to help the American microchip industry compete against China, indicating that he did not want to "have government picking the winners and losers.". Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Cant fix stupid or true believers. With the combine drills about to start from Indianapolis, @TheRealForno has a three-round mock draft to get you excited But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. The polling suggests that in the past two years, Johnson has positioned himself better for the first task than the second. The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . This is less true for governors, however. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. With a PARG of +13, Democratic Gov. The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. Its based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 that its a good idea to think about politicians popularity in the context of their states partisanship. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. Those is Tim. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Because Massachusetts is so blue, thats no big whoop in the Bay State but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal. Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. The poll, whose . The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. ago. A trio of red-state Democrats Kentuckys Andy Beshear, Kansass Laura Kelly and Louisianas John Bel Edwards all have PARGs between +31 and +51 as well. The decline in sentiment largely started after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but gained momentum after Biden was elected, when Johnson made headlines for his statements about the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and skepticism of vaccines. 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. In July, in our last survey, President Biden's approval rating was 33 percent, one of his worst results of the cycle. The governor got 48% of the vote to 41% for Michels, 48% versus 40% for Nicholson, and 48% versus 41% for Ramthun. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. RCP House Ratings, Map. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. After about a three-year hiatus, FiveThirtyEights Popularity Above Replacement Senator and Popularity Above Replacement Governor ratings are back! Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. But Democratic Gov. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. Become a member for $9/month. Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. . But as Franklin notes, Johnsons growing salience for these voters could help Democratic turnout. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. In Marquettes last poll, 36% of voters viewed him favorably and 58% viewed him unfavorably. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party.
